Ukraine invasion: Europe boosts eastern flank, ambassador in Australia says NATO will protect Russia's neighbours

Estonia's ambassador to Australia has told The Canberra Times she is "100 per cent" certain of NATO protection if Vladimir Putin turns his guns on the former Soviet-occupied state.

And despite threats from the Kremlin, her Finnish counterpart says Moscow's shocking assault puts joining the military pact "on the table".

Mr Putin rued the collapse of the Soviet Union while justifying the invasion, prompting suggestions his plans extend beyond Ukraine. The rhetoric sparked fears of NATO being drawn into a full-blown war if the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - are attacked.

And support for joining the military pact, which is amassing troops on its eastern flank, is also rising across another of Russia's borders.

Mr Putin has long railed against NATO's expansion eastwards, with the Kremlin warning of consequences to Finland and Sweden if they join the military pact.

Finland, forced to fight off a Soviet invasion during WWII, has balanced the threat over its eastern border by military non-alignment for decades.

But Finnish ambassador to Australia Satu Mattila-Budich told The Canberra Times the Ukraine assault had reshaped its calculations virtually overnight and "accelerated" discussion on joining NATO.

"We see it as an attack on the whole European security order," she said.

"Many things are on the table at the moment ... [but] we don't normally make any decisions hastily or in a hurry."

While it is "not the first time we've heard" threats from Russia, she said, they were more alarming while bombs rained down on Ukrainian civilians.

But if Mr Putin's goal is to keep NATO at arm's length, it may be backfiring.

A recent poll suggests 53 per cent of Finns are now in favour of joining the pact - a steep climb - while just 28 per cent oppose the move.

READ MORE: 'Belongs to Europe': EU Ambassador Pulch says invasion will push Ukraine into the bloc

Lawmakers are also set to discuss the proposal after a petition attracted 70,000 signatures within days, well above the threshold required to trigger a debate in parliament.

"Political leaders have not been so eager to express their views, but we've really seen a change in the last week," Ms Mattila-Budich said.

"It is possible [NATO membership] will be an election issue [in April 2023]. That will force different parties and political leaders to express their views."

Finland's approach is designed to keep all options open. But Ms Mattila-Budich described Russia's attempts to create spheres of influence as "unacceptable", saying Helsinki could not support attempts to alter borders on the continent.

The crisis has prompted Finland to deepen military ties with Sweden over the past week, and the pair is now receiving enhanced intelligence from NATO on Ukraine.

It also followed Germany in an "historic" decision, reversing its long-standing opposition to arming foreign countries.

"It was not certain Finland would make that kind of decision, but then there was political support and unanimity," she said.

EU Ambassador Michael Pulch has played down the prospect of normalised relations with a Putin-led regime, even if a Russian withdrawal were to occur.

Ms Mattila-Budich insisted the EU - "more united than ever" - is open to discussions.

"Maybe there is a chance for diplomacy if we get a chance to talk, but at the moment it really depends on President Putin," she said.

Estonian ambassador to Australia Kersti Eesmaa does not "know what cooperation [with Mr Putin] could look like" going forward.

"The trust was not there to start with. So to build trust with that leader, at the moment, I would say is impossible," she said.

Estonia - a country of 1.3 million people just south of Finland - is one of three Baltic states enjoying NATO protection, after escaping Soviet occupation in 1991.

Despite Moscow's threats to Scandinavia, it has remained noticeably quiet on the region.

Ms Eesmaa said there is no "concrete" military threat for now, but the crisis prompted Estonia to join urgent talks with its NATO partners.

"Obviously we cannot be naive, and we cannot say this will not happen. It would be naive [to] ignore the threat and not to prepare," she said.

"We need to move to a defence mode."

Answering the call, the UK has doubled its troop presence in Estonia, which was also visited by Prime Minister Boris Johnson this month.

Under NATO guidelines, an attack on any member state would trigger a military response from the entire bloc. But that provision has never been tested in Europe.

Ms Eesmaa insisted the pact is "as strong as it's ever been" and is "100 per cent" certain it would defend its smallest members.

"If there is a threat to us, that's a threat to NATO. There's no question in our minds that NATO [would support us]," she said.

Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea came as a pro-European Union uprising ousted a Moscow-aligned leader.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week filed an application to join the EU, a process likely to take years, which Ms Eesmaa said should be immediately considered.

"Sometimes I get the feeling [people believe] that we are supporting Ukraine because we are afraid for our own security. It's not true," she said.

"We are supporting Ukraine because we believe in every country's right to determine their own path."

And with more than 1.5 million Ukrainians having already fled their homeland, Ms Eesmaa said Estonia is willing to do "everything it can" to ease the humanitarian crisis.

"Our community in Australia ... knows exactly what it means to flee from war, and to start with nothing but one suitcase," she said.