Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell this week reported their lowest quarterly profits since 1999 and 2005, respectively. Chevron's third straight loss marked the longest slump in 27 years, and BP lodged its lowest refining margins in six years.
Welcome to year two of a supply overhang so persistent it's upsetting industry expectations that the market would return to a state of balance between production and demand. It's left analysts befuddled and investors running to the doorways as the crude market threatened to tip into yet another bear market, dashing hopes that a slump that began in mid 2014 would show signs of abating.
Exxon missed analyst estimates by US23¢ a share and fell as much as 4.5 per cent on Friday before recouping some of that decline. Chevron posted a surprise $US1.47 billion ($1.93 billion) loss after booking $US2.8 billion in writedowns. The company's per-share loss of US78¢ was in stark contrast to the US19¢ to US41¢ gains expected by analysts. BP and Shell registered similarly gloomy outcomes.
"What we're seeing is that there's just no place for the supermajors to hide," said Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis. "Oil prices, natural gas, refining, it all looks very bad right now."
Crude prices dropped during the quarter from a year ago amid a global glut in the $US1.5 trillion-a-year market. With diesel and gasoline prices also slumping, the companies were deprived of the tempering effect oil refining typically provides during times of low crude prices.
Given the plunge in crude and natural gas markets, "you cannot recover, no matter how efficient you are," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer. "The industry cannot survive on current oil prices."
Shell reported its weakest quarterly result in 11 years and missed analysts' estimates by more than $US1 billion. BP said earnings tumbled 45 per cent amid the lowest refining margins for the second quarter since 2010. US margins, based on futures contracts, plunged 30 per cent to a second-quarter average of $US17.12 a barrel from $US24.42 a year earlier.
Refining profits will continue to be under "significant pressure," BP said. Although Brent crude's rebound provided some relief compared with the first quarter, CEO Bob Dudley still faces a difficult road ahead as the rally fades amid slowing demand growth and returning production from Canada to Nigeria.
BP's profit, adjusted for one-time items and inventory changes, dropped to $US720 million from $1.3 billion a year earlier, the company said on July 26. That missed the $US819 million average estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Downstream earnings, which include refining, declined 19 per cent.
Output hurt
Exxon, the world's biggest oil explorer by market value, said wildfires that ravaged the oil-sands region of Western Canada, along with ageing wells, reduced output. Its US oil and natural gas wells lost an average of $US5.6 million a day during the quarter.
At Shell, the largest oil producer after Exxon, profit adjusted for one-time items and inventory changes sank 72 per cent from a year earlier to $US1.05 billion, less than half the $US2.16 billion analysts had expected.
Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben Van Beurden, who this year completed the record purchase of BG, has vowed to boost savings from the acquisition following the two-year slump in crude.
It was Chevron's third straight quarterly loss, the longest slump for the company since at least 1989.
Still adjusting
Chevron Chairman and CEO John Watson said the company continues to adjust to the lower-price environment. He has responded to the market-driven cash squeeze by shrinking drilling programs, writing off discoveries that were too costly to develop at current prices and firing one-tenth of the workforce. The company is seeking to bolster its balance sheet by raising $US5 billion to $US10 billion from asset sales.
Despite the rout, and credit-rating cuts, Chevron greenlighted a $US36.8 billion expansion of a key Central Asian oilfield earlier this month. This week, the company committed to distribute a $US1.07-a-share dividend that will eat up about $US2 billion in cash when paid out to investors in September.
Exxon Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson has been looking beyond the current downturn in energy markets to augment the company's gas and oil portfolios from the South Pacific to Africa. The company also is plowing money into expanding refining and chemical complexes from Singapore to The Netherlands, betting that regional demand for products used in automobile tires, engine oil and plastics will grow over the long term.
Bloomberg
