The lead author of a consultants' report hailed by Environment Minister Greg Hunt as supporting the government's climate policies is a current member of the Liberal Party and former candidate for the federal seat of Sydney, prompting questions about its independence.
Gordon Weiss is an associate of energy consultancy Energetics and was one of three authors of a report commissioned by the Environment Department exploring how Australia could meet its 2030 carbon emissions targets. The report did not disclose his affiliation.
The report drew criticism from groups such as The Climate Institute for its findings, in particular that Australia could achieve the Abbott-Turnbull government's goal of cutting 2005-level emissions 26-28 per cent "under the current policy framework".
Mr Hunt, though, praised the Energetics report at last week's debate with Labor counterpart Mark Butler, saying it confirmed the government "could meet and beat" its target "without additional measures", the Guardian reported.
A spokesman for the minister said Mr Hunt "was not aware of any political affiliations".
"No information was provided to either the department or the minister by the office on the political affiliations of the department's recommended panellist or any other panellist, nor would such a course of action have been appropriate."
Fairfax Media sought comment from Dr Weiss, who had disclosed his political affiliation elsewhere, such as in a February 2016 article published on The Conversation website, entitled "Australia's emissions are climbing again, but it already has the policies to turn the tide".
Peter Holt, another of the Energetics report authors, said the company "did not disclose Dr Weiss' personal political party affiliation because it has no bearing on either the analysis or conclusions drawn in our report on Australia's abatement opportunities through to 2030".
Dr Weiss was "a highly experienced and published doctoral chemical engineer with more than 30 years' experience", Dr Holt said, adding: "Energetics is an independent management consulting firm … [and had] worked for federal, state and local governments of all persuasions."
Emma Fagan, the other author, "who has dedicated more than several hundred hours to this report, does voluntary work for the ALP", he said.
Dr Holt downplayed the significance of Weiss being named ahead of himself and Fagan among the report's authors, saying it was "just a list".
Fairfax Media understands that Dr Weiss is a leading "blue-green" figure within NSW Liberal circles, working for years to bolster support for tougher climate action within the party including running a "Climate Change and Environment Professionals Branch".
His views are far from universally accepted, however, with the party's state council in March passing a motion calling for national debates on global warming involving "independent climate scientists".
Dr Weiss, a former Liberal councillor in the inner-western Sydney suburb of Leichhardt, ran against Tanya Pilbersek in the 2010 elections, garnering just under one-third of the votes after preferences.
His campaign was launched by now Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, about eight months after Mr Turnbull had been rolled by Tony Abbott with climate policies a key issue in the leadership spill:
At the Aurora Hotel for the launch of Gordon Weiss' Liberal campaign in seat of Sydney.— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) August 14, 2010
A flyer for the event promised "an afternoon of food, drink, conversation and camaraderie":
In May last year, Mr Hunt used a speech at the Second Emissions Reduction Fund Summit, to single out Dr Weiss's work on the $2.55 billion fund that pays polluters to cut back emissions or find carbon abatement.
"I particularly want to thank Peter Castellas, Senator Nick Xenophon, Danny Price, Gordon Weiss and Stuart Allinson who have been crucial to the design and passage of the Emissions Reduction Fund," Mr Hunt said, according to a speech posted on his website.
At this year's event earlier this month, renamed the Third Australian Emissions Reduction Summit, Mr Hunt gave the keynote speech on Day 2.
Dr Weiss was a moderator in an afternoon session on the Safeguard Mechanism, the legislated limit on carbon emissions that many analysts – and even politicians – believe could be the basis for a future baseline cap and trade emissions trading scheme.
Indeed, the Energetics report singled out the Safeguard Mechanism along with the ERF as delivering the largest share of needed carbon abatement between 2020 and 2030. (See chart below). The current ERF, though, has no funding beyond the remaining $816 million yet to be spent after three auctions.
Labor's Mr Butler declined to comment on Dr Weiss' political links, but criticised Mr Hunt's use of the report.
"Greg Hunt is peddling a report from Energetics to claim the government can reach its emissions reduction targets – but has failed to mention this will only happen if the Turnbull Government changes its policies," he said in a statement.
"The devil is in the detail and the Energetics report says the government could meet half of its target – not all – and only with changes."
Adam Bandt, the Greens energy spokesman, was more critical: "With everyone else saying 'direct action' is an expensive failure, the Liberal Minister commissions a report from a former Liberal candidate and councillor to vindicate the Liberal government's fig-leaf of a climate change policy.
"Greg Hunt then relies on the report to say the government's current approach will meet its measly pollution reduction targets, but even the report's authors say more is needed," Mr Bandt said.
Mr Hunt's spokesman defended the consultants: "Energetics has a long history of being correct with forecasts, whereas other groups have a long history of being wrong."
One of the main question marks over the report is why the annual starting point of 2020 level emissions is 532 million tonnes, when the government's own projections indicate on current projections Australian annual emissions will still be 577 million tonnes by the decade's end. (See chart below.)
Energetics' Dr Holt explained the reasoning for the lower 2020 starting point: "It's a forward-looking model and we were requested to model the scenario where the business-as-usual emissions trajectory started from 532 [million tonnes] in 2020.
While the consultants found "sufficient abatement potential to meet the 2030 target given our emissions in 2015 ... we did not model the policy measures required to achieve the 532 MT [2020 result], nor did we undertake a cost-benefit analysis of any potential policy measures".
Other critics have also pointed to the large abatement potential given to the National Energy Productivity Plan for vehicles and other energy uses, noting that there is little sign of the policies or funding to back up such ambition.
