The week ahead for Australian investors will be influenced mostly by international events rather than domestic issues, with markets preparing for volatility from the Greek referendum, and the RBA unlikely to change rates on Tuesday.
The week will get off to a rocky start as the world learns of the outcome of the Greek referendum early on Monday morning, Australian time. This will have a significant impact on global financial markets.
Anne Anderson, Asia-Pacific head of fixed income for UBS Global Asset Management, said markets would probably experience significant volatility while the votes are counted, but if Greece accepts the conditions put forward by its creditors, by voting yes, there would be some short-lived relief rallies until another crisis comes to a head.
The yes vote would also create ongoing political instability pressures on markets, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has campaigned actively for the no side and will probably need to step down or call another election to reach a new bail-out agreement.
While most analysts have forecast a yes win, polls have been too close to call, and many investors were hedging their bets. On Friday, the Australian Securities Exchange reversed its three-day rally to close with the S&P/ASX200 down 0.14 per cent for the week, as investors took their money off the table until the referendum outcome was known.
"If the referendum returns a no, it would greatly increase the degree of uncertainty, leading to a lower euro, weaker equity markets and a flight to safety such as US bonds and gold," Ms Anderson said.
The ASX lost almost $40 billion on Monday from the instability caused by fears of a Greek no vote. This instability will reign again, with an actual no vote likely to cause a similar or worse loss on Monday and into the week.
On Tuesday, the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to discuss monetary policy and will announce if there will be any changes to the cash rate.
JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters said he was not anticipating any change to the cash rate, now 2 per cent.
"Our expectation is that the RBA is in a holding pattern as officials watch developments domestically and offshore, including the troubling events in Europe," Mr Walters said.
He said JP Morgan was not expecting any key signals to be issued to the market in the statement, citing RBA governor Glenn Stephens' preference to issue guidance in his speeches.
"We doubt enough has changed to warrant the reappearance of explicit guidance this week," Mr Walters said. "We think it would take a lot to get officials to lower the cash rate again any time soon. The preference still seems to be for lower [Australian dollar] to do the work, which remains a work in progress."
The dollar was trading at US75.2¢ late on Sunday, after shedding almost 2¢ in the last week.
Westpac's chief currency strategist, Rob Rennie, is expecting the Australian dollar to break out below the US75¢ to US78¢ range soon, as a range of factors including Greek referendum volatility drive it down.
"I have made it very well known in recent weeks and months that I expect to see a breakout very soon," Mr Rennie said.
"The factors that will drag it there are weaker LNG and iron ore prices, weaker terms of trade and growth, reduced Japanese demand and Fed lift-off," Mr Rennie said in a note. On Sunday, iron ore was trading at $US55.26 after losing almost 11 per cent over the preceding week due to oversupply.
Westpac is forecasting the dollar to reach US73¢ by September and US72¢ by December. This in line with a survey of 25 market, academic, independent and industry economists released on Friday, which returned an average of US73.8¢ and an anticipated trading range of US68¢ to US80¢.
Another key factor for currency and equity markets will be a speech by US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen about the US Economic Outlook on Friday. Any clear indication about the timing of the beginning of the tightening cycle will affect US and global markets.
