State Liberal MPs and the strategists steering Premier Mike Baird's election campaign in NSW are convinced they will go to the March 28 poll with Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.
Monday's Fairfax-Ipsos poll, which has identified a fight back by the federal Coalition, appears to have ended earlier hopes in some sections of the state party that Mr Baird's campaign would enjoy a sugar hit from a federal switch to Malcolm Turnbull.
"The view as of this morning is that we are going to the election with Tony Abbott as Prime Minister," said a party source.
The Fairfax-Ipsos poll puts the Coalition within striking distance of the Bill Shorten-led federal Labor Party, or 49-51 on a two-party-preferred basis.
But state ALP figures working on NSW Opposition Leader Luke Foley's campaign have found comfort in the state-by-state figures that suggest the so-called "Abbott factor" will remain a drag.
The poll found that Mr Abbott's approval ratings are actually the highest in Queensland, despite the wipe-out of the Newman LNP government in January in which the federal Coalition was seen as a negative factor and Mr Abbott was kept away from the campaign trail for the entire month.
Fairfax-Ipsos found Mr Abbott's approval in Queensland is 39 per cent, compared to 30 per cent in NSW and 29 per cent in Victoria.
In Queensland, 55 per cent of voters disapprove of the Prime Minister compared to 62 per cent in NSW and 65 per cent in Victoria.
"No wonder the [NSW] Libs are worried," said a senior ALP source.
But a Liberal MP said the Abbott factor would be less pronounced than in other states and that the campaign had been crafted on the assumption of no leadership change at federal level.
Fairfax Media has learned that Mr Abbott will be used during the state election but that his appearances will be confined to certain seats and certain geographic areas.
In terms of marginal seats, Mr Abbott's strongest pitch is considered to be in western Sydney electorates where his strength on national security resonates.
But Liberal strategists said it is almost certain that he will not appear at any events in the Liberal-held seats of Coogee and Oatley. In those areas, Mr Baird's popularity among female voters is the party's key strength.
"Mike Baird is the most popular politician in Australia at any level by a mile," said a Liberal source.
In January, as Mr Abbott's popularity nosedived as a result of his decision to knight Prince Phillip, Fairfax reported the concerns of the NSW Liberal head office that a number of Liberal seats were in direct danger as a result of the federal government's woes.
They included Strathfield and Campbelltown - both held with margins of about 6.5 per cent. Oatley, Parramatta, Port Stephens and Seven Hills were also said to be in danger. Labor believes it can pick up seats such as Coogee and Rockdale, both held by the Baird government with margins of more than 8 per cent.
In Parliament on Monday, Mr Abbott said he was pleased to be working "hand in glove" with the NSW Premier.
"I'm very happy to be standing shoulder to shoulder with Mike Baird as I was just nine days ago in Sydney and, Madam Speaker, together the NSW Coalition government and the Commonwealth Coalition government will set NSW up for a great future," he said.
