Coalition MPs inclined to give Tony Abbott more time to recover now have a strong argument to back their instincts and resist any move to topple him this week.
The worst month of Abbott's leadership of the Liberal Party has coincided with a slight improvement in his poll ratings, admittedly from a shockingly low base, and a significant drop in those of Bill Shorten.
The Coalition's primary vote in the latest Fairfax Ipsos National Poll is also back where it was in late October, after Abbott's performance on national security helped it recover from the post-budget lows.
The best news of all for Abbott is that the Coalition primary and two-party vote are higher in New South Wales than in any other state. If they were replicated elsewhere, Abbott would be cruising.
This weakens one of the most potent arguments of those anxious to move quickly: that change is needed to ensure Mike Baird does not suffer the kind of anti-Abbott backlash on March 28 that helped deliver conservative defeats in Victoria and Queensland.
This poll does not guarantee that Abbott will have until after the May budget to restore confidence in his leadership, but it does suggest that, barring a new trigger emerging, he is safe this week.
Indeed, results invite two possible conclusions. The first is that voters want the leadership speculation to go away and the government to focus on governing. That will be the Abbott camp's take-out.
The second is that voters have already factored in a change to Malcolm Turnbull and have framed their responses on voting intention and Shorten's performance accordingly. This is closer to the mark.
Support for this second conclusion can be found in three areas: Abbott's approval ratings; the responses of voters when asked to compare Abbott and Turnbull on various qualities; and the apparent warming to Turnbull among Coalition voters.
First, approval ratings. When the Coalition vote improved at the end of October, the shift was also reflected in a dramatic improvement in Abbott's net approval rating to minus-seven. Even with an eight-point improvement since January, it now stands at minus-30. This suggests voters have made up their minds on Abbott.
Second, leadership qualities. Turnbull outperforms Abbott on all 10 qualities measured in the poll, with the biggest leads in competence (74-39); openness to ideas (69-35) and grasp of economic policy (70-38).
In seven of the 10 areas, Abbott's numbers have dropped significantly since December. The most ominous is when it comes to having the confidence of his party. Almost 80 per cent of voters thought Abbott had it in July 2013. Just 21 per cent think he has it now.
Finally, there is the question of preferred Liberal leader. Turnbull's lead here has improved from 15 to 20 points since November. Abbott is still the preferred prime minister among Coalition voters, but a 17-point lead over Turnbull in November has narrowed to just eight points.
"Voters appear to already be factoring in Abbott's potential departure; they don't like him, prefer Turnbull and assume Abbott is not long in his job," is Ipsos director Jessica Elgood's conclusion.
All of which may not translate to good news for Shorten, who is nominated as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent of voters, down one point since November. "Across the period of polls over recent months, he hasn't maximised what is effectively an open goal," says Elgood.
