With the nation's attention focused on yet another armed conflict Americans will again go to the polls in just under two months for a midterm election that neither party is fighting on sure footing.
Ever since President Barack Obama won his second term in 2012 the Republican Party had expected to fight the 2014 midterm elections on Obamacare, but after a rocky start the health reforms have not proved to be the poison to the Democratic Party that the Grand Old Party had hoped. There is near silence on the issue now.
And with the massive support the Obama campaign won from Latino voters in 2012 much of the Democratic Party had wanted to make immigration reform a central theme of this campaign. Instead, Democratic candidates in marginal seats have pressured the president to abandon his planned immigration reform package until after the November 7 polling day.
Nonetheless the stakes are high. All of the Republican-dominated House of Representatives is up for grabs, as is control of the Senate. Republicans hope to take control of all of Congress, Democrats dream of holding it. The White House wants to maintain control of the Senate in order to cement the president's legacy rather than spending his last two years in office vetoing Republican bills.
As a result of the new campaign finance laws approved by the Supreme Court before the last election, campaigns are awash with cash and with no unifying theme the election is turning nasty.
In Kentucky, the Republican Mitch McConnell is fighting not only to return his seat but hoping to become the Senate majority leader against a surprisingly tough Democratic challenge from Alison Lundergan Grimes. He is on track to raise and spend $US30 million and the fight is on track to become the single most expensive Senate campaign in history.
In Kansas, the Democratic nominee has taken the extraordinary step of suing to have his name removed from the ballot. Democratic strategists believe an independent has a greater chance of taking the seat from Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. Kansas's elected Republican secretary of state has refused to remove the name.
Almost all major election forecasters are predicting the Republicans will gain at least the six seats they need to take over the Senate. The Washington Post gives the GOP a 61 per cent chance of winning the Senate, while the New York Times puts the odds at 67 per cent. Nate Silver, who came closest to correctly predicting the 2012 election, gives the Republicans a 63 percent chance. Why?
Firstly, of the 36 seats up for grabs this year, 21 are controlled by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Therefore, the Democrats have to defend more ground than the Republicans, giving the GOP more opportunities for pick-ups, while the Democrats have to spread their resources more thinly. The reason for this is that Senators serve six-year terms and six years ago, 2008, was a very good year for Senate Democrats. (As well as Barack Obama, who went from the Senate to the White House.)
Secondly, many of the seats being contested in this election are in conservative or conservative-leaning states. North Carolina, South Dakota, Arkansas and Louisiana are all states with contested Senate races and all are considered red states. Obama lost all four of those states in 2012 and all but North Carolina in 2008. While Democratic incumbents in North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas might hang on to win, the Democrats have all but conceded the race in South Dakota to the GOP.
Then there is the demographics of the midterm electorate. Voters in midterms tend to be more committed to the electoral process and, crucially, older and whiter. Voters 65 and older made up 16 per cent of the electorate in 2012, a general election year. But in 2010, the last midterm election year, senior citizens comprised 21 per cent of the voters. In 2012, whites over the age of 30 were 64 per cent of the voting electorate, but 69.9 per cent in 2010. White voters, older voters and, especially, older white voters, are core of the Republican base.
Also, Obama is unpopular and elections tend to be referendums on incumbents. In most polls, Obama is now hovering around 40 per cent approval. In 2006, just before the Democrats swept the GOP out of power in both the House and the Senate, President George W. Bush's rating was 42 per cent.
Finally, the party controlling the White House almost always loses seats in Congress in midterms. It's called the "midterm penalty" and it means the party controlling the White House only wins midterm elections in times of great upheaval. In the last century the only years when the party controlling the White House gained seats in a midterm were 1934, 1998 and 2002.
